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BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN 1 DRAFTKINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight PPV card in Phoenix, Arizona. This is the very first ever UFC on big ESPN card and DK has some adequate competitions for us with this Sunday card. The most important GPP is that a $10 buy-in and $20k belongs to 1st place, also there will be $100k in total prizes. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that last contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers so be cautious chasing those too hard. I will likely stick to the very best GPP this week and throw 50 or so entries at that $20k prize. I’ll also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a good amount of drama into cash games. With that said, let us get to a few plays I like as well as my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Vicente Luque ($9,400)
Vicente Luque is the safest play on the slate, in my view. I believe he’ll be the fighter anywhere this fight moves, and he should predominate. I like locking that win in my cash game and I think he has a fantastic chance at getting 10x his $9.4additional salary. I do expect him to become popular in tournaments so in the event that you want to fade the ownership there and try to be more contrarian, I’d definitely need some Luque investment in money games. Barberena is tough so that he could continue all 3 rounds and if he does then Luque might only score in the 80s and that will not win any GPPs. However, we can use an ~80-point triumph in cash games because we only need to beat half the field unlike the tournaments.
GPP drama of this week — Cain Velasquez ($9,000)
Cain Velasquez is my GPP drama of the week because of the odds. A little more than a week ago he was a -255 favorite and that’s what resulted in his high $95 price tag. Now he’s just -155 and all the value is currently on Ngannou in his 7.2k price tag. I anticipate Ngannou are the greatest owned fighter on the card and if Cain wins then he’ll kill off close to half the area. Furthermore, if Cain wins he is likely scoring over 100-points. I expect his possession to go down the more his betting line decreases and that’s what makes him a fantastic GPP play. He does have a 0-point floor, therefore that I do not care for him in money game, but for GPPs we want boom or float to try to reach that 1st place prize.
Underdog play of this week — Andre Fili ($7,400)
Andre Fili is my favorite dog of the week. He’s $1,400 cheaper than Myles Jury on DraftKings, but he is just a +125 underdog. I think he’s a good chance of winning this battle and I am choosing him to get his hands raised. I expect this to be an extremely close fight, but I believe Fili will probably be the fighter striking in the greater rate and that is precisely what I believe do it for him to the judges’ scorecards. I don’t see Fili having 100+ stage upside but we do not really require that at his $7.4k price tag. I think he’s a great shot at getting at 10x, so he’s playable in all formats for me personally.
Fade of the week — Andrea Lee ($8,900)
Andrea Lee is my fade of the week. Not because I believe she will lose, but I think have a hard time seeing her about the $20k lineup in her salary. I like the 9k range a great deal more than her and they all have higher ceilings using their grappling-based match plans. Andrea Lee scored well within her UFC debut, but this is because she didn’t utilize grappling there. I don’t see her doing this in this match because I think Evans-Smith has the edge on the ground and she must be the one searching for takedowns. If Lee is going to win this battle, then she’s going to need to do it on the toes and I really don’t see her with a high ceiling without a finish. The sole reason to utilize her is because she is going to be super low owned, and it’ll make your lineup , but I wouldn’t advise it.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my complete DraftKings evaluation, as well as all of my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link too. I’m 57-34 to get +188.13un (+$18,813) because May 19th on Premium Plays)

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